Brisbane’s Future Apartment Pipeline

In recent years, Brisbane’s future apartment pipeline has been a contentious and speculative topic. An oversupplied market has been continually referenced, threatening the market overall.

With the ever evolving property market, the number of apartments to be delivered to Brisbane and the likelihood of some proposed projects actually reaching the sales cycle is continually changing. Place Advisory has considered many varying market conditions and trends throughout our analysis of the data – suggesting that oversupply, in most cases, will never be recognised. Below we will discuss what can be expected in terms of potential development in the future, how the landscape of our city is changing and how Brisbane’s future apartment market is evolving.

Future Apartment Pipeline

Prepared by Place Advisory. Source BCI Australia.

Due to the regular misinterpretation regarding Brisbane’s future apartment pipeline, Place Advisory has allocated every development in the pipeline into one of six categories. These categories include currently deferred projects pending market conditions, proposed developments that are unlikely to make it to the market place, proposed developments that are likely to enter the market, projects that are on the market and awaiting construction, projects that are being marketed and currently under construction and finally, projects that are sold out and under construction.

Through our analysis, and as portrayed above, out of the entire proposed development pipeline for Inner Brisbane’s skyline, less than half of the proposed apartments may actually make it to the market.

Brisbane’s Apartment Landscape

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Prepared by Place Advisory. Source BCI Australia.

The interactive map above shows the location of Brisbane’s proposed developments that are likely to enter the market, projects that are currently on the market as well as those that are sold out and under construction. The map is colour coded, with the dark green representing a greater volume of new apartments and the lighter grey representing a lower volume of stock.

As can be seen, the majority of apartments planned/likely to be delivered are situated in Brisbane’s CBD, South Brisbane, Newstead and Bowen Hills. These areas are currently experiencing extensive development, which is set to continue over the next three years.

Breakdown of Future Stock

Prepared by Place Advisory. Source BCI Australia

As shown in the table above, Brisbane’s apartment market is continually evolving. Over the next three year period, we can expect to see a significant shift away from one bedroom apartments and we will begin to see more two and three bedroom apartments enter the market. Of the 9,309 apartments to be delivered in 2017, approximately 51% will be two bedroom apartments. One bedroom stock will account for 44%, whilst the remaining 5% will be three bedrooms. This shift will continue throughout 2018, which will see an additional 5,267 apartments delivered to the market. The number of two bedroom apartments will increase to 54% and three bedroom apartments will increase to 8%. Meanwhile, one bedroom stock will decrease to 38% of supply. These trends are expected to remain consistent throughout 2019.

Looking forward, Place Advisory expects this shift to continue as we see more demand for owner occupier apartments. As the owner occupier market strengthens, two different markets will emerge, adding an extra dimension and higher quality projects with more points of difference to the Brisbane market.

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